Large forest fire risk assessment and fuel management: operational tools and integrated approach

By miriam.pique_180 on

Authors: Míriam Piqué, José Ramón González‐Olabarria, Teresa Valor, Andrea Duane, Mario Beltrán,
Ángela Blázquez, Lluís Brotons (Forest Science Centre of Catalonia, CTFC)
Thomas E. L. Smith (King’s College London, KCL)

There are a number of tools and methods available to obtain estimates on future fire hazard,
fire risk, fire ignition probability and fire behavior. When talking about fire hazard, it usually
refers to the fuel characteristics or fire related properties of the fuels at one point in time
(Keane et al. 2010). While when talking about fire risk, it usually considers the probability
that a fire might occur in a certain place and period of time, and also its potential degree of
damage, especially if we consider an economic approach, as when planning forest
management (Gadow 2000). Therefore, to assess fire risk we have to consider the ignition
probability, and the potential that an occurring ignition will translate into a significant fire
event (Keane et al. 2010). Such analysis of fire risk will require from the knowledge of the
fire ignition sources and subjacent factors, the behavior of fire depending on existing fuels,
their distribution, and other surrounding factors (weather, topography, fire extinction
resources, etc.). Regarding to the effect of climate change on the risk of fire, it can be
mention that it will increase the level of uncertainty to any future predictions about the risk
of fire. One way to deal with the uncertainty arisen by climate change can be to apply a large
set of possible climatic scenarios and undertake a sensibility analysis with the obtained
results. [...]

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